Thailand is poised to officially commence its rainy season on Friday, May 15, as announced by the Meteorological Department on Thursday. However, forecasts indicate that this year’s rainfall may be below the usual levels.
According to director-general Sukanyanee Yawinchan, the official declaration of the rainy season relies on three key criteria: persistent rainfall covering over 60% of upper Thailand, a shift in lower-level winds to a southwesterly direction, and upper-level winds moving to an easterly pattern.
This year, the wet season is anticipated to last until approximately mid-October in upper Thailand, while the eastern regions of the South can expect rainfall that extends into December. Overall, it is projected that rainfall will be around 10% less than the seasonal average.
In the initial weeks leading up to mid-June, an increase in rainfall frequency is expected, particularly in the eastern and western parts of the South. However, from late June through July, a decrease in both the frequency and intensity of rain is likely, leading to a brief dry period before conditions resume in August and September. The latter months are expected to warrant attention due to the potential for heavy rain, flash floods, forest runoff, and overflowing rivers.
Ms. Sukanyanee noted that the department is closely monitoring the El Nino climate phenomenon, which is currently classified as neutral. However, there is a possibility of a stronger El Nino developing in the latter half of the year.
Experts have raised concerns about the increasing likelihood of a Super El Nino affecting the region in the second half of the year, with Southeast Asia potentially facing significant dry conditions.
Additionally, one or two tropical storms are predicted to approach Thailand during August and September, primarily impacting the northern and northeastern regions. A monitoring center for heavy rainfall and strong winds in the Andaman Sea has also been established, Ms. Sukanyanee added.
Heavy rain is forecasted from Thursday through Monday.
Source: Bangkok Post
